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Wildlife deaths associated with cyanide-bearing tailings dams are a significant environmental issue that has affected the gold mining industries for many years and still characterized by little knowledge about how to measure, monitoring, reduce or eliminate those deaths. The purpose of this paper is statistically to determine: the potential for establishing causal relations between exposure to cyanide (in its most common species relevant to tailings) and response (measured by death counts), to develop a protocol of data analysis, the understanding of the significance of data gaps, and the effect of likely risk management interventions to achieve the goals of the International Cyanide Management Code (ICMC); [ICMC The International Cyanide Management Institute. International cyanide management code, the international cyanide management institute 2005, www.cyanidecode.org.]. However, operator's certification under the ICMC is difficult because of the limited data and potentially serious underestimation of the death counts. This is due to observational skill and monitoring frequency, the small size of the carcasses, large extent of tailings facilities, carcasses loss by; entombment in tailings, sink, or taken by scavenging wildlife. This (1st order or bounding) assessment results focus on bird-deaths, which appear to be most frequent at sites where elevated cyanide concentrations are found. Those results indicate that the empirical causal associations we generate support the hypotheses that:

Cyanide intake and bird-deaths is not linear, and that relationship is characterized by a threshold at approximately 50 mg weak-acid-dissociable cyanide (WADCN) per litre of tailings waste (50 mg/L); and

The counts of either wildlife deaths or visitations on tailings dams decrease as the surface area of the supernatant decreases.

This paper also develops the basis for a complete risk assessment study to be based on additional data gathering activities and detailed statistical analyses. These two activities, combined with a risk management plan also being developed, will provide a tool for compliance with the ICMC. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.