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The Sun's role in climate variability is now a subject of debates, especially in the context of understanding contribution of solar forcing to modern global warming. Besides, there are some evidences of the approaching new Grand Solar Minimum with Little Ice Age climatic conditions. This expectation is based on the occurrence of the extended solar minimum of 2006-2009. To investigate the possible Sun-climate connection the regional tree-ring chronology covering the period from 1445 to 2005 was analyzed. A total of 36 timber cores of pine Pinus sylvestris L. were sampled near the northern tree-line at Loparskaya station (68.6 N, 33.3 E), including the oldest living pine with more than 560 years of age. The data were processed using modern methods adopted in dendrochronology (cross-dating and standardization) with the help of COFECHA and ARSTAN programs. The analysis revealed significant cooling events, coinciding with the Spoerer (1400-1540), Maunder (1645-1715), Dalton (1790-1830), and Gleissberg (1880-1910) Grand Solar Minima. The application of MTM-spectrum and wavelet decomposition analysis identified the existence of the main cycles of solar activity (5.4, 11.7 and 22 years) in tree-ring width variations. As possible extraterrestrial forcings of climate change we consider here variations in solar irradiance and cosmic ray intensity modulated by the interplanetary magnetic field. As solar and cosmic ray activity indicators we used the annual sunspot number, geomagnetic aa index and Be<^>10 cosmogenic isotope records. To examine the relationship in time-frequency scale between tree-ring growth and solar activity, the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to the time series. The wavelet coherence analysis identified that the 11 yr and 22 yr periodicities were clearly manifested in the all solar-tree rings connections during and around the Grand Minima of solar activity including the Maunder minimum, when, as is known, sunspots were practically absent. These results confirm the existence of solar activity effect on climate and tree growth above the Arctic Circle and are important for understanding the modern climatic processes.


Kasatkina, Elena A.;  Shumilov, Oleg, I;  Timonen, Mauri

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